What's the Treasure Valley Real Estate Market Like Right Now?
Oct 8, 2026 · @LauraT
Short answer: the Treasure Valley is still a seller-leaning market heading into fall/winter 2026, but the story has shifted from prices to interest rates. Properly priced homes are still selling quickly and close to asking price. What changed in the last six weeks is borrowing costs: the average 30-year mortgage rate climbed above 7% in late September for the first time since early 2025.
Here's what the latest numbers say, and what they mean if you're thinking about buying or selling in Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Caldwell, Eagle, Kuna, Emmett or anywhere in between.
Home prices: steady, with real differences city to city
Prices across the valley are holding firm, not falling. In July 2026 (the most recent full month of closed MLS sales reported by city), the typical home across the valley's ten core cities sold for $525,000, about 5% higher than a year earlier.
| Area | Median sales price, July 2026 | Change vs. July 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Eagle | $932,425 | +19.6% |
| Star | $642,500 | +9.2% |
| Ada County | $579,000 | +8.2% |
| Meridian | $572,500 | +8.2% |
| Boise | $560,000 | +7.9% |
| Emmett | $526,250 | +18.3% |
| Kuna | $482,798 | +7.2% |
| Canyon County | $443,557 | +4.4% |
| Nampa | $435,000 | +1.2% |
| Caldwell | $430,900 | +7.7% |
Source: Intermountain MLS closed sales
Emmett's jump is based on just 34 sales in July, so read it as a sign of growing interest rather than a precise trend.
A single strong summer month can overstate the trend. Looking at the full year, Zillow's home value index for Ada County was up only about 1.3% through August, and the first half of 2026 saw Ada County prices roughly flat year over year. The honest read: values are stable to modestly rising, not booming.
Canyon County remains the valley's value play, with a median roughly $135,000 below Ada County. In Nampa and Caldwell, $500,000 still buys around 2,100 square feet and four bedrooms.
Inventory and speed: still tight, still fast
Supply is the main reason prices haven't softened. At mid-year, Ada County had about 2.5 months of inventory and Canyon County about 2.6 months. A balanced market is usually 4 to 6 months, so both counties still favor sellers over buyers.
Well-priced homes are moving quickly:
- Boise: about 7 days on market in July, the fastest in the valley
- Ada County overall: about 11 days, down from 18 a year earlier
- Meridian and Kuna: about 14 days each
- Canyon County: about 18 days, unchanged from last year
Zillow's August data shows Ada County homes going pending in about 13 days, with roughly 30% of sales closing over list price and about 39% closing under it. That split matters: the right home at the right price still draws strong offers, while overpriced listings sit and take reductions.
Mortgage rates: the biggest change this fall
Rates are the headline right now. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate hit 7.28% for the week of October 1, 2026, its highest level since November 2023. That's up from about 6.67% in mid-August and 6.34% a year ago.
What that means in real dollars: on a $450,000 loan, principal and interest at 7.28% runs about $3,079 a month, roughly $280 more than the same loan at last year's 6.34%. That gap is enough to push some buyers to a lower price range or a different part of the valley ~ or even out of the market altogether.
Rates move weekly, so treat these as a snapshot. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type. A local lender can give you a precise number in a single conversation. (For my clients, I always recommend using a local lender rather than a lender who is online only.)
What this means if you're buying
Higher rates are a real cost, but they also thin out the competition. Some buyers step back when rates cross 7%, which can open a window for those who are ready.
- Get pre-approved before you tour. In Boise and Meridian, good homes go pending in about two weeks or less. You'll want your financing lined up first.
- Ask about rate buydowns and seller credits. With roughly 4 in 10 Ada County sales closing under list price, sellers of homes that have been sitting are often open to concessions that lower your rate.
- Look west for more space per dollar. Nampa, Caldwell, and Kuna still offer the most square footage for the money in the valley.
- Don't wait for a price crash. With inventory around 2.5 months, prices have little room to fall sharply. Many buyers choose to buy the right home now and refinance later if rates come down.
What this means if you're selling
Sellers still have the advantage in most of the valley, but pricing has to be right from day one.
- Price to the market, not to last spring. Correctly priced homes are selling close to their original list price. Overpriced ones sit, then sell after reductions.
- Expect buyers to be payment-focused. With rates above 7%, offering a credit toward a rate buydown can attract more offers than a price cut of the same size.
- Presentation still pays. Clean, well-staged, well-photographed homes are the ones moving in a week or two.
- Fall is a good time to list. Less competition from other sellers, and the buyers who are out touring in October and November are usually serious.
The bottom line
The Treasure Valley market this fall is stable, fast-moving, and more rate-sensitive than it was a few months ago. Prices are holding, inventory is tight, and the right homes still sell quickly. Rising rates are the variable to watch.
Every neighborhood behaves a little differently, and the valley-wide numbers can hide a lot. If you'd like to know what's happening on your street or in the area you're shopping, I'm happy to put together a custom market snapshot for you.
Laura Trairatnobhas, REALTOR®, John L Scott Real Estate BOI
Market figures are the most recent available as of October 8, 2026, and are subject to change.
Sources
- Intermountain MLS closed sales
- Zillow: Ada County Home Values (data through August 31, 2026)
- Trading Economics: US 30-Year Mortgage Rate